Fundstrat Global Advisors co-founder Tom Lee said that the current value shown by his proprietary Bitcoin (BTC) sentiment metric, the Bitcoin Misery Index (BMI), has never before been seen in a bear market. This news comes via comments Lee made in an interview published by Cointelegraph yesterday.
In the interview, Lee pointed out that through 2018, the BMI never topped 50. Now, however, the value recently hit a peak of 89. Per Lee, the BMI never before reached 67 in a bear market. His conclusion?
“It means that a bull market is likely starting,” said Lee.
Even still, Lee also explained that when the indicator reached a value as high as it is now, “six out of six times, there was a drawdown in the market,” with each pullback averaging a 25% loss in value for BTC. In effect, this means there could be some losses in the short term, but Lee also claimed that this could mean that investors were selling their BTC into altcoins, and not necessarily taking profits in fiat.
As Bitcoin Center NYC reported, earlier this month Lee tweeted that the BMI could be a “good or bad” indicator for Bitcoin’s price in the medium term, presenting two competing scenarios. However, now it seems Lee has come down on one side: the “good” one.
Lee developed the BMI in March 2018 in order to measure the public’s sentiment about Bitcoin, with a 0 reading indicating peak misery and a 100 indicating peak happiness among investors. The BMI reached a high of 98 in 2016, and a low of 18 in April 2018.
Taking everything Lee has said over the last month, it appears he believes the bull market has begun.